How Nature’s Unpredictability is Changing Trekking: An Interview with Arjun Majumdar, Founder of Indiahikes

Yesterday’s flash flood in Uttarkashi has left the trekking and mountain community shaken. The unnerving video circulating online, showing the sudden surge of water and the destruction in its path, is a stark reminder of how fragile mountain ecosystems are and how vulnerable communities living in these regions have become.

These incidents also bring an uncomfortable truth to the forefront: natural disasters in the Himalayas are becoming more frequent. Just in the past few years, we’ve seen an increase in flash floods, landslides, and cloudbursts.

This made me want to understand: Is this simply because we now have more access to news? Or are these events truly becoming more common? And what does this mean for trekking?

I decided to speak to someone who has been observing the mountains more closely than most, Arjun Majumdar, our founder at Indiahikes. Over three decades of trekking, he’s seen Himalayan landscapes and seasons shift dramatically. I wanted his perspective on what’s changing, how Indiahikes is navigating these realities, and what the future of trekking looks like.

Q: You’ve been trekking in the Himalayas for more than 30 years. Are natural disasters like flash floods, landslides, and cloudbursts happening more often now than before?

Arjun:
If you’re asking whether natural calamities are happening more often now than in the past, my answer is overwhelmingly yes.

Even the changing of the seasons has become very unpredictable. Earlier, in the first few years of Indiahikes, I could predict the first snowfall to almost the exact date — plus or minus one or two days. For example, around the 4th or 5th of December, we’d get the first Western Disturbance of the season.

Now, there’s no way for me to predict when we’ll get the Western Disturbances.

Earlier, there were very clear seasons. When Indiahikes was younger — in 2008, 2009, 2010 — we had six distinct seasons. You could predict when one would start and when one would end. It went like clockwork.

Now, seasons are extended. I’m getting heavy snowfall in March and April. The monsoon doesn’t seem to end, or it starts much earlier than expected.

Q: What’s changed apart from the seasons becoming unpredictable?

Arjun:
The frequency and intensity of natural events have increased.

Earlier, we would get heavy downpours in monsoon, which was expected. But now, these downpours sometimes result in cloudbursts or landslides.

Earlier, I could predict where landslides would happen: certain sections of the road were prone to them. We even used to joke about it, saying, “You know you’re going to spend half an hour there because the road will be blocked.”

Now, landslides can happen anywhere. Our trekkers and staff are getting stuck in places they never imagined, sometimes for hours, because a landslide just doesn’t stop. There’s rolling of boulders, the JCB clears it, and then fresh boulders fall on the same place.

Flash floods, swollen streams, and rivers are destroying bridges or wooden logs that we use as crossings. They just get smashed, and you’re stuck.

Q: Did you see this coming? Or is this a surprise to you?

Arjun:
It doesn’t surprise me. We’ve been talking about climate change for a long time, and these are the results of climate change.

It’s not just climate change. It’s also the unprecedented construction in the mountains. In places where we shouldn’t be constructing anything, construction has almost tripled or quadrupled since we started Indiahikes.

Q: Are you referring to tourism infrastructure, tunnels, or road development?

Arjun:
The bigger losses are actually happening in towns and villages, where construction is coming in the path of the natural flow of things.

Earlier, if there were 100 people in a village, now there are 500, probably catering to tourism. They cut trees, change land use, and the soil becomes weak.

Nobody is happy with a single-storey house, so they build double-storey houses, again weakening the foundation. These places are not meant for such constructions.

On top of that, climate change is here, and not in a good way. Rivers are more swollen. Dams have been constructed everywhere. Rainfall is heavier.

Q: We’ve been talking about trekking and safety, but what about the people living in these mountain regions? Even our own staff? How are they coping with these changes?

Arjun:
Local communities are at the frontlines of these disasters. A flash flood or landslide doesn’t just disrupt a trek; that’s the least of anyone’s concerns. It can wash away homes, farmland, and sometimes livelihoods overnight.

Many villages have had to adapt, shifting their farming cycles, building temporary infrastructure, or in some cases, relocating entirely. Tourism is both a support and a pressure point. It brings income, but it also adds to the strain if it’s unmanaged.

As trekkers, we need to be mindful that we are visitors in these regions, and our presence should support their resilience, not add to their challenges.

Q: Apart from these events, have you personally witnessed other impacts like glaciers receding?

Arjun:
Definitely, many of the glaciers we used to trek on have shrunk in size. The Gangotri Glacier itself is an example. 

The snow bridges on Rupin Pass are another example. There used to be a huge snow bridge immediately after the coniferous forest, about half a kilometre long, and then seven other snow bridges.

Now, the snow bridge after the forest has reduced to a tiny winter patch, and the seven bridges have reduced to two or three. The rest have melted by the time we reach them.

This receding snowline is visible on all our treks.

Q: With these changes, what is Indiahikes doing to keep trekkers safe?

Arjun:
Safety is created in two ways.

One: move the crowd away from danger zones.
Two: be prepared for dangers if they happen.

We’ve increased our investment in equipment, disaster management, and training three or four times over. (Read about our Safety Protocols here.)

But that’s only one part of the solution. The other is to actually have other zones to trek where it’s not so disaster-prone.

That’s what we’re doing: exploring new trails in rain-shadow areas like Lahaul and Spiti, in Central India, and other parts of the country where people can trek without being exposed to such dangers.

Q: When a disaster occurs or bad weather is forecast, how does Indiahikes decide whether to cancel or modify a trek?

Arjun:
We have a very clear safety-first protocol.

We monitor weather systems constantly, both from local ground reports and multiple forecasting models. Our mountain teams send daily updates from the slopes.

If there’s a credible risk, whether it’s a landslide-prone road, flash flood warnings, or unsafe snow conditions, we don’t hesitate to call off a trek. It’s never an easy decision, but safety comes before schedules.

Sometimes we may reroute to an alternate trek that’s safer, but the decision is always based on ground reality, not optimism.

Q: You mentioned earthquakes. Is that a concern too?

Arjun:
Yes. There’s one danger nobody talks about: earthquakes.

That danger is hanging over our heads like a knife. It can happen anytime because India is on fault lines that have been under tension for many years.

There is an imminent earthquake likely to happen in the Himalayas. We don’t know whether it will be next week, next month, next year, or in two years. Nobody can predict it, but we know one is imminent.

So how do you prepare?

In all our campuses, you will not find concrete structures. We have made fabricated structures in such a way that they shake but don’t collapse heavily on your head. Even if they collapse, you are most likely to get away.

This was a conscious decision taken five years ago. We will not have any concrete structures in our campuses.

Q: What’s your advice to trekkers?

Arjun:
Be mindful and aware that these things are happening. Don’t go by some past experience of a trekker who suggested a trek based on conditions years ago.

For example, someone might tell you they did Kedarkantha in winter and saw lots of snow. You may just land up and find nothing.

I’m not saying it’s a bleak picture. Trekking is still wonderful, and you must do it. Just be aware of what’s happening.

Q: What’s the light at the end of the tunnel?

Arjun:
The light is more zones for trekking, and different kinds of treks.

Change also forces exploration. Because certain zones are becoming more unpredictable, we’re discovering new trekking regions — rain-shadow areas, Central India, and trails that were not traditionally on the radar.

Trekkers are also becoming more open to different kinds of experiences — forest treks, meadows, even winter treks without deep snow. This flexibility enriches trekking, because the mountains have so much more to offer than just one type of landscape.

If you are open to all kinds of trekking, then trekking remains beautiful.

In conclusion: 

Talking to Arjun left me with two big takeaways.

First, natural disasters are undeniably increasing in the Himalayas. But this doesn’t mean trekking is unsafe — it means trekking is changing. Routes are shifting, seasons are unpredictable, and trekkers need to adapt.

Second, preparation is everything. As an organisation, we’re investing heavily in safety systems, training, and exploring new trekking zones. But as trekkers, the responsibility is ours too — to stay informed, be flexible, and approach the mountains with awareness.

The mountains are changing. And so must the way we trek in them.